Realistic Consequences and Implications of Nancy Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan

Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on 2 August 2022, despite the fact that the Chinese government had repeatedly reaffirmed the US-China Joint Communiqué and the “One China” Principle. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan can be seen as a landmark event in the history of Taiwan-US relations since 1979, with real-world implications and political consequences that are in some ways comparable to those of a small military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is directly perceived by mainland China as a blatant challenge by the US to the "One China" principle and a challenge to the "red line" of China's 1.4 billion people. The tacit political understanding and balance between mainland China, Taiwan and the US on the Taiwan Strait is gradually being broken, which makes the situation in the Taiwan Strait more unstable.

1. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a landmark event in the history of the development of Taiwan-US relations.

In 1979, the People's Republic of China and the United States signed the "Joint Communiqué between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations", which came into force on 1 January 1979, declaring that the People's Republic of China and the United States had established formal diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level. In this communiqué, the United States recognised for the first time that "the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China" but reserved unofficial relations with Taiwan (Republic of China). Pelosi became the second Speaker of the US House of Representatives to visit Taiwan during her term of office since the US broke off diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in 1979, and the first Speaker of the House of Representatives from the US federal ruling party to visit Taiwan. This is undoubtedly a landmark event in the history of Taiwan. Although Newt Gingrich, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, also visited Taiwan in 1997, Pelosi's visit was more influential. Firstly, Pelosi is a senior figure in the US Democratic Party; she has been the senior leader of the Democratic House of Representatives for 19 years and has been the Speaker of the House four times. Her influence within the party and the US is far more significant than Newt Gingrich's. Secondly, as the Democratic Party is currently the ruling party in the US, Pelosi's actions are generally seen by the international community as reflecting the policy direction of the US. Thirdly, against the backdrop of the current downward spiral in US-China relations, Pelosi's official visit to Taiwan has further stirred up the already sensitive and fragile US-China relations, adding more uncertainty to the next step in the development of US-China relations. As we all know, China has always regarded Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory. Its territorial integrity is one of its "core interests", and Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has already touched China's diplomatic red line.

2. Taiwan Strait enters the "Post-Taiwan Strait Era"

The Taiwan Strait issue is one of the more complex geopolitical disputes in global affairs today, but in November 1992, after the governments of the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China signed the 1992 Consensus, both the Chinese mainland and Taiwan agreed that "both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the same China and that the political connotations of the two sides can be excluded from transactional discussions". The political meaning of "one China" can be left out of the negotiations. Although the consensus is still controversial and both the Chinese Central and Taiwanese governments have their interpretations of it, the Taiwan Strait has been in a state of political balance for a long time since then. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan meant a de facto break with the tradition of non-official bilateral contacts since the termination of diplomatic relations between the Republic of China and the United States at the ambassadorial level in 1979 and an indirect break with the three joint communiqués between China and the United States. Pelosi's visit had upset the original political-ecological balance in the Taiwan Strait. Following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait also became a visible movement to demonstrate to the international community its sovereignty over the region.

On the Chinese side, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has stimulated patriotic nationalism and national sentiment among the Chinese people, which has triggered a "wave of anti-American nationalism" in mainland China - in contrast to the Taiwanese people. The two different types of nationalism in mainland China and Taiwan are clashing in the Taiwan Strait, impeding the signing of a resolution on the Taiwan Strait issue between the two sides, as the Chinese and the Taiwanese government are moving towards a confrontation and the bilateral clash of nationalist sentiments is more detrimental to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue.

3. Effect on Taiwan's foreign policy and ideological construction

As a left-wing party in Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has always been very vocal about Taiwan's independence and the development of relations with the West. Over the past two years, the DPP authorities have been trying to stimulate the sensitive political nerves of the Chinese government by developing relations between Taiwan and the West. For example, on 18 November 2021, the Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania was opened in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, which was the first time that the Taiwanese authorities had opened an office in another country under the name "Taiwan Representative Office" instead of "Taipei Representative Office". This name change directly led to the freezing of bilateral relations between mainland China and Lithuania. The visit of Pelosi to Taiwan has further enhanced the political prestige of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the island of Taiwan, further justifying and legitimizing its foreign policy and raising the "anti-China and pro-US" national sentiment on the island of Taiwan.

Moreover, in Taiwan, the most prominent opponent in politics to the DPP is the Kuomintang (KMT). KMT had been keeping a cautious distance from the US in the past, in great contrast to the pro-US sentiment of the DPP, which has triggered a re-evaluation by the Taiwanese public of the foreign policy of the KMT during its past administration. Given the political propaganda of the DPP and political pressure within the island of Taiwan, the KMT is at risk of losing voters due to this issue. As a result, Taiwan is facing an ideological reshaping process that is "pro-US and anti-China", and the KMT is also at risk of an ideological left-leaning fusion.

4. Persistent downward spiral in US-China relations

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the development of bilateral relations has been full of twists and turns. Still, there is no doubt that the Taiwan issue has always been one of the most sensitive and strategic issues in Sino-US relations.

Under the Trump administration, the US launched a trade war with China under the "America First" principle, and relations between China and the US feel to an unprecedented freezing point since 1979, with some international relations scholars beginning to predict a "new cold war" between China and the US. Under the Biden administration, the US started to gradually ease relations between the two countries. After communication and dialogue, the two countries have begun to show a state of bilateral détente. Just as the bilateral relationship between China and the United States has been starting to improve, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has undoubtedly destroyed the previous efforts made by both sides to mitigate the bilateral relationship, which has also added uncertainty to the improvement and development of the bilateral relationship between China and the United States before the US partisan elections in 2024. The official Chinese media "Guangming Daily" published a commentary on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan on 6 August 2022, "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan: the US government cannot escape blame". The article pointed out that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was not only the result of the Biden administration's positioning of US-China relations in terms of strategic competition, but also the result of the US government's reckless tampering with the basic norms of relations between the two countries that had been formed 50 years earlier, when President Nixon had visited China, allowing the US hegemonic mindset to modify its position on the proper rules arbitrarily. The Biden administration keeps emphasizing the need to establish and safeguard a "rules-based international order" but the historical norms established and formed over time in dealing with bilateral relations are also an essential part of international rules.

5. China no longer unilaterally recognises the median line in the Taiwan Strait

On the day of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (2nd August 2022), China's Eastern Theater, for its part, immediately announced a series of joint military operations around the island starting on the evening of the 2nd, with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducting critical military training operations and organizing live fire in six sea and air areas surrounding the island from the 4th to the 7th. This was also the first time that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) had conducted long-range live firing in the Taiwan Strait. Former Taiwan legislator and current affairs commentator Guo Zhengliang analyzed in a program on "Zhongtian News" that the PLA's six military exercise areas all exceeded the centre line of the Taiwan Strait, breaking the tacit agreement achieved in the past, "meaning that there is no centre line and there will be none in the future", which will lead to Taiwan's air defense identification zone and the mainland’s overlap. The implications of this military exercise for Taiwan are long-term. Firstly, it keeps Taiwan under constant military pressure from mainland China, and this military pressure tends to normalize. The concept of the median line in the Taiwan Strait no longer exists for Beijing, and Taiwan plays a pawn in the geopolitical competition between the US and China in the Taiwan Strait and East Asia. The impact is not limited to military pressure as China's "show of muscle" demonstrates that it can entirely block Taiwan and unify it by force. Once this military pressure becomes the norm, bilateral trade between mainland China and Taiwan will be severely damaged, and given the vast disparity between the economies of mainland China and Taiwan, Taiwan will undoubtedly be the one to suffer severely economically. In addition, the military uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait will seriously affect Taiwan's transport and trade with other countries, and the instability of Taiwan's security will also cause external investors to reconsider Taiwan's economic and financial situation. While Taiwan cannot be ignored in the global supply chain and economy, low and prolonged pressure from mainland China will also negatively impact Taiwan and the region.

All in all, Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a significant event in the history of the Taiwan Strait, the consequences and implications of which are variable, long-term and unstable. The event has been highly controversial in the international community and has created a massive wave of public debate in the United States. All in all, however, the issue of the Taiwan Strait belongs to the legacy of history and the fact that China is desperately looking for an exit and a solution to the Taiwan issue, whether this will lead to a fourth crisis in the Taiwan Strait or not, all will have to wait for the test of time.

Author: mgr Heqi Sun

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